Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.440252 0.508424 0.582746 0.669669 0.768416 0.876979 1.005247
2025-08-17 0.319612 0.411066 0.520774 0.661503 0.836602 1.046621 1.316877
2025-08-24 0.251839 0.351004 0.478688 0.653913 0.886714 1.183783 1.589711
2025-08-31 0.201465 0.300525 0.435880 0.632353 0.907850 1.277584 1.807895
2025-09-07 0.181200 0.286178 0.436919 0.666145 1.002137 1.471982 2.172844
2025-09-14 0.151728 0.253112 0.405753 0.648316 1.018978 1.557568 2.390737
2025-09-21 0.128311 0.225290 0.377874 0.630417 1.031361 1.634681 2.599270
2025-09-28 0.110078 0.202817 0.354883 0.616285 1.046227 1.714313 2.815160
2025-10-05 0.100303 0.192996 0.350711 0.631127 1.107002 1.867688 3.154695
2025-10-12 0.094643 0.189484 0.356390 0.662372 1.196510 2.072314 3.589552
2025-10-19 0.087322 0.181829 0.353767 0.678576 1.261415 2.240953 3.977165
2025-10-26 0.079487 0.172054 0.346050 0.684536 1.308417 2.382307 4.328259
2025-11-02 0.071227 0.160499 0.334062 0.682050 1.341288 2.504033 4.658777
2025-11-09 0.063195 0.148294 0.319443 0.673101 1.361613 2.605647 4.962601
2025-11-16 0.056338 0.137533 0.306296 0.665339 1.382922 2.709794 5.277329
2025-11-23 0.049029 0.124647 0.287197 0.643428 1.374560 2.758354 5.493439
2025-11-30 0.047491 0.124715 0.295219 0.677764 1.479531 3.025051 6.130973
2025-12-07 0.041845 0.114214 0.279159 0.659648 1.477027 3.086840 6.385455
2025-12-14 0.036889 0.104615 0.263891 0.641460 1.472372 3.143431 6.632772
2025-12-21 0.032785 0.096514 0.251026 0.627100 1.474187 3.212337 6.907930
2025-12-28 0.030943 0.094063 0.251145 0.642182 1.540545 3.415530 7.463349
2026-01-04 0.030191 0.094454 0.258158 0.673931 1.646019 3.705648 8.212385
2026-01-11 0.028625 0.092344 0.258734 0.690395 1.718475 3.931508 8.842876